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USA vs Slovenia — Friendlies 2026

USA
USA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slovenia
Slovenia
1/20/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Toyota Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

USA42%
×Draw26%
Slovenia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA
1.40
Slovenia
1.18

USA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

creates per match

USA
1.72
Slovenia
1.17

allows per match

USA
1.19
Slovenia
1.08

finishing

USA+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

USA or draw
68%
USA or Slovenia
74%
Draw or Slovenia
58%

Winning margin

USA wins by 2+
20%
Slovenia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

USA 1+ goals
75%
USA 2+ goals
41%
USA 3+ goals
17%
Slovenia 1+ goals
69%
Slovenia 2+ goals
33%
Slovenia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

USA (draw refunded)
57%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Slovenia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA attack 1.72 + Slovenia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Slovenia attack 1.17 + USA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

USA scores more
42%
level
26%
Slovenia scores more
32%

USA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "USA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USA vs Slovenia

Slovenia beat USA 1-0 in Friendlies on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Toyota Field in San Antonio, Texas.