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USA vs Costa Rica — Friendlies 2018

USA
USA
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
G. Reyna 77' (pen)
R. Cannon 52'
D. Dike 42'
B. Aaronson 8'
6/9/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

USA58%
×Draw23%
Costa Rica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA
1.86
Costa Rica
0.99

USA creates 88% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 24 away

creates per match

USA
1.72
Costa Rica
0.79

allows per match

USA
1.19
Costa Rica
2.00

finishing

USA+0.00on par
Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA ↓

Costa Rica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

USA or draw
80%
USA or Costa Rica
77%
Draw or Costa Rica
42%

Winning margin

USA wins by 2+
33%
Costa Rica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USA 1+ goals
84%
USA 2+ goals
55%
USA 3+ goals
28%
Costa Rica 1+ goals
63%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
26%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

USA (draw refunded)
74%
Costa Rica (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA attack 1.72 + Costa Rica defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Costa Rica attack 0.79 + USA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

USA scores more
58%
level
23%
Costa Rica scores more
20%

USA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "USA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
B. Aaronson
37'
Mark McKenzie
42'
D. Dike↳ M. McKenzie
46'
W. Zimmerman← M. McKenzie
46'
R. Leal← A. Salazar
46'
C. Borges← B. Alfaro
46'
A. Lassiter← G. Torres
52'
R. Cannon
62'
J. Yueill← T. Adams
64'
A. Cruz← J. Campbell
64'
J. Montenegro← J. Venegas
74'
G. Reyna← T. Weah
75'
K. Acosta← Y. Musah
75'
T. Siebatcheu← D. Dike
75'
B. Oviedo← Y. Tejeda
77'
G. ReynaPenalty
82'
S. Dest← A. Robinson

Possession

66%USA

Shots

5USA

Statistics

USACosta
Overview
66%Possession34%
5Total Shots2
2Corners0
4Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots2
3On Target1
2Off Target1
Passing
66%Possession34%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
4Fouls5
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Friendlies: USA 4–0 Costa Rica

USA beat Costa Rica 4-0 in Friendlies on June 9, 2021.

Goals: B. Aaronson (8'), D. Dike (42'), R. Cannon (52'), G. Reyna (77' pen).

USA controlled possession (66%) and registered 5 shots to 2.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah.