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USA vs Canada — Friendlies 2026

USA
USA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Canada
Canada
L. de la Torre 66'
J. David 58'
J. Shaffelburg 17'
9/7/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

USA34%
×Draw26%
Canada40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA
1.31
Canada
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

USA
1.71
Canada
1.67

allows per match

USA
1.19
Canada
0.92

finishing

USA+0.00on par
Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA ↓

Canada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

USA or draw
60%
USA or Canada
74%
Draw or Canada
66%

Winning margin

USA wins by 2+
15%
Canada wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

USA 1+ goals
73%
USA 2+ goals
38%
USA 3+ goals
14%
Canada 1+ goals
76%
Canada 2+ goals
42%
Canada 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

USA (draw refunded)
46%
Canada (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

Canada away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA attack 1.71 + Canada defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Canada attack 1.67 + USA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

USA scores more
34%
level
26%
Canada scores more
40%

Canada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Canada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. DavidCanadaCanada · F
8.3

Match Events

17'
J. Shaffelburg↳ J. David
25'
R. Laryea← A. Johnston
53'
Folarin Balogun
58'
J. David
62'
A. Morris← J. Cardoso
62'
L. de la Torre← M. Tillman
63'
Cyle Larin
66'
L. de la Torre↳ A. Morris
67'
T. Oluwaseyi← C. Larin
67'
L. Millar← J. Shaffelburg
67'
J. Osorio← S. Eustaquio
70'
J. Waterman← D. Cornelius
71'
H. Wright← Y. Musah
77'
C. Cowell← B. Aaronson
82'
R. Pepi← F. Balogun
90+4'
S. Afrifa← J. David
90+4'
N. Saliba← M. Choinière

Possession

58%USA

Shots

8USA

Pass accuracy

51%USA

Statistics

USACanada
Overview
58%Possession42%
8Total Shots17
2Corners7
18Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots17
5On Target7
3Off Target6
0Blocked4
7Inside Box14
1Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
510Total Passes358
446Accurate Passes295
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

USA 1 – 2 Canada

Canada beat USA 2-1 in Friendlies on September 7, 2024.

Goals: J. Shaffelburg (17'), J. David (58'), L. de la Torre (66').

USA controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.