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USA vs Bolivia — Copa America 2019

USA
USA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bolivia
Bolivia
F. Balogun 44'
C. Pulišić 3'
6/23/2024Copa AmericaCopa America · Group Stage - 1AT&T Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

USA77%
×Draw18%
Bolivia4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA
1.90
Bolivia
0.27

USA creates 604% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

USA
1.00
Bolivia
0.20

allows per match

USA
0.33
Bolivia
2.80

finishing

USA+0.00on par
Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA ↓

Bolivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USA or draw
96%
USA or Bolivia
82%
Draw or Bolivia
23%

Winning margin

USA wins by 2+
50%
Bolivia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

USA 1+ goals
85%
USA 2+ goals
56%
USA 3+ goals
29%
Bolivia 1+ goals
24%
Bolivia 2+ goals
3%
Bolivia 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

USA (draw refunded)
95%
Bolivia (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA attack 1.00 + Bolivia defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bolivia attack 0.20 + USA defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

USA scores more
77%
level
18%
Bolivia scores more
4%

USA at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "USA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. PulišićUSAUSA · F
8.9

Match Events

3'
C. Pulišić↳ T. Weah
27'
Leonel Justiniano
31'
Luis Haquín
44'
F. Balogun↳ C. Pulišić
46'
Y. Musah← T. Adams
46'
R. Ramallo← L. Justiniano
46'
H. Cuellar← D. Medina
46'
M. Terceros← C. Menacho
49'
Weston McKennie
65'
R. Pepi← F. Balogun
66'
J. Cardoso← G. Reyna
67'
C. Algarañaz← B. Miranda
75'
R. Vaca← R. Fernández
78'
L. de la Torre← W. McKennie
86'
B. Aaronson← T. Weah
90+2'
Jesús Sagredo

Possession

61%USA

Shots

20USA

Pass accuracy

51%USA

Statistics

USABolivia
Overview
61%Possession39%
20Total Shots6
2.51Expected Goals (xG)0.18
7Corners1
8Fouls17
Shots
20Total Shots6
8On Target3
6Off Target2
6Blocked1
15Inside Box0
5Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
518Total Passes342
430Accurate Passes274
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
1.39Goals Prevented1.39
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: USA vs Bolivia

USA beat Bolivia 2-0 in Copa America on June 23, 2024.

Goals: C. Pulišić (3'), F. Balogun (44').

USA controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.