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USA U19 vs Germany U19 — Friendlies 2026

USA U19
USA U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Germany U19
Germany U19
M. Dills 73', 25'
T. Neininger 37'
11/12/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

USA U1954%
×Draw20%
Germany U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA U19
2.25
Germany U19
1.50

USA U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

USA U19
3.25
Germany U19
1.75

allows per match

USA U19
1.25
Germany U19
1.25

finishing

USA U19+0.00on par
Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA U19 ↓

Germany U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

USA U19 or draw
75%
USA U19 or Germany U19
80%
Draw or Germany U19
46%

Winning margin

USA U19 wins by 2+
33%
Germany U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

USA U19 1+ goals
89%
USA U19 2+ goals
65%
USA U19 3+ goals
39%
Germany U19 1+ goals
78%
Germany U19 2+ goals
44%
Germany U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

USA U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Germany U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA U19 attack 3.25 + Germany U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Germany U19 attack 1.75 + USA U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

USA U19 scores more
54%
level
20%
Germany U19 scores more
25%

USA U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "USA U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Dills
37'
T. Neininger
73'
M. Dills

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: USA U19 2–1 Germany U19

USA U19 beat Germany U19 2-1 in Friendlies on November 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Dills (25', 73'), T. Neininger (37').