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USA U19 vs Belgium U19 — Friendlies 2026

USA U19
USA U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
D. Pinter 77', 68'
S. Murru 29'
K. Furo 23'
10/14/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

USA U1961%
×Draw18%
Belgium U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA U19
2.79
Belgium U19
1.63

USA U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

USA U19
3.25
Belgium U19
2.00

allows per match

USA U19
1.25
Belgium U19
2.33

finishing

USA U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

USA U19 or draw
79%
USA U19 or Belgium U19
82%
Draw or Belgium U19
39%

Winning margin

USA U19 wins by 2+
41%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USA U19 1+ goals
94%
USA U19 2+ goals
76%
USA U19 3+ goals
52%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
80%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
48%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

USA U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA U19 attack 3.25 + Belgium U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Belgium U19 attack 2.00 + USA U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

USA U19 scores more
61%
level
18%
Belgium U19 scores more
21%

USA U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "USA U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. Furo
29'
S. Murru
68'
D. Pinter
77'
D. Pinter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: USA U19 2–2 Belgium U19

USA U19 and Belgium U19 drew 2-2 in Friendlies on October 14, 2025.

Goals: K. Furo (23'), S. Murru (29'), D. Pinter (68', 77').