Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

USA U17 W vs Japan U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

USA U17 W
USA U17 W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Japan U17 W
Japan U17 W
Y. Takahashi 48'
N. Fukushima 33'
M. Sato 10'
6/28/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

USA U17 W38%
×Draw23%
Japan U17 W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA U17 W
1.71
Japan U17 W
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

USA U17 W
2.67
Japan U17 W
2.50

allows per match

USA U17 W
1.00
Japan U17 W
0.75

finishing

USA U17 W+0.00on par
Japan U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA U17 W ↓

Japan U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

USA U17 W or draw
60%
USA U17 W or Japan U17 W
77%
Draw or Japan U17 W
62%

Winning margin

USA U17 W wins by 2+
19%
Japan U17 W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

USA U17 W 1+ goals
82%
USA U17 W 2+ goals
51%
USA U17 W 3+ goals
24%
Japan U17 W 1+ goals
83%
Japan U17 W 2+ goals
52%
Japan U17 W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

USA U17 W (draw refunded)
49%
Japan U17 W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA U17 W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Japan U17 W away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA U17 W attack 2.67 + Japan U17 W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Japan U17 W attack 2.50 + USA U17 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

USA U17 W scores more
38%
level
23%
Japan U17 W scores more
40%

Japan U17 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Japan U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Sato
33'
N. Fukushima
48'
Y. Takahashi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USA U17 W vs Japan U17 W

Japan U17 W beat USA U17 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on June 28, 2025.

Goals: M. Sato (10'), N. Fukushima (33'), Y. Takahashi (48').