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US Souf vs JS Saoura — Ligue 1 2018

US Souf
US Souf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JS Saoura
JS Saoura
12/9/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade El Oued OPOW

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

US Souf24%
×Draw23%
JS Saoura53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Souf
1.17
JS Saoura
1.85

JS Saoura creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 107 away

creates per match

US Souf
1.13
JS Saoura
0.84

allows per match

US Souf
2.87
JS Saoura
1.20

finishing

US Souf+0.00on par
JS Saoura+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Souf ↓

JS Saoura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

US Souf or draw
47%
US Souf or JS Saoura
77%
Draw or JS Saoura
76%

Winning margin

US Souf wins by 2+
9%
JS Saoura wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

US Souf 1+ goals
69%
US Souf 2+ goals
33%
US Souf 3+ goals
11%
JS Saoura 1+ goals
84%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
55%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

US Souf (draw refunded)
31%
JS Saoura (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Souf at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

JS Saoura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Souf attack 1.13 + JS Saoura defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

JS Saoura attack 0.84 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

US Souf scores more
24%
level
23%
JS Saoura scores more
53%

JS Saoura at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: US Souf vs JS Saoura

JS Saoura beat US Souf 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Oued OPOW in El Oued.