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US Oyem vs Pélican — Championnat D1 2022

US Oyem
US Oyem
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pélican
Pélican
3/25/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

US Oyem39%
×Draw28%
Pélican33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Oyem
1.26
Pélican
1.13

US Oyem creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

US Oyem
1.13
Pélican
1.29

allows per match

US Oyem
0.97
Pélican
1.39

finishing

US Oyem+0.00on par
Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Oyem ↓

Pélican →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

US Oyem or draw
67%
US Oyem or Pélican
72%
Draw or Pélican
61%

Winning margin

US Oyem wins by 2+
17%
Pélican wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

US Oyem 1+ goals
72%
US Oyem 2+ goals
36%
US Oyem 3+ goals
13%
Pélican 1+ goals
68%
Pélican 2+ goals
31%
Pélican 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

US Oyem (draw refunded)
54%
Pélican (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Oyem at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Oyem attack 1.13 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pélican attack 1.29 + US Oyem defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

US Oyem scores more
39%
level
28%
Pélican scores more
33%

US Oyem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "US Oyem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: US Oyem 1–0 Pélican

US Oyem beat Pélican 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 25, 2026.