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US Oyem vs Ogooue FC — Championnat D1 2022

US Oyem
US Oyem
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
3/31/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

US Oyem38%
×Draw31%
Ogooue FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Oyem
1.06
Ogooue FC
0.91

US Oyem creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

US Oyem
1.13
Ogooue FC
0.85

allows per match

US Oyem
0.97
Ogooue FC
1.00

finishing

US Oyem+0.00on par
Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Oyem ↓

Ogooue FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

US Oyem or draw
69%
US Oyem or Ogooue FC
69%
Draw or Ogooue FC
62%

Winning margin

US Oyem wins by 2+
15%
Ogooue FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

US Oyem 1+ goals
65%
US Oyem 2+ goals
29%
US Oyem 3+ goals
9%
Ogooue FC 1+ goals
60%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
23%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

US Oyem (draw refunded)
56%
Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Oyem at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Oyem attack 1.13 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + US Oyem defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

US Oyem scores more
38%
level
31%
Ogooue FC scores more
31%

US Oyem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "US Oyem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: US Oyem 1–0 Ogooue FC

US Oyem beat Ogooue FC 1-0 in Championnat D1 on March 31, 2026.