US Oyem 2–1 Bouenguidi: Result & Stats

US Oyem

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bouenguidi

5/26/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

US Oyem44%

×Draw30%

Bouenguidi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

US OyemExpected goals in this matchBouenguidi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.86

US Oyem

1.21

Bouenguidi

0.86

US Oyem creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.13

creates per match

0.75

0.97

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

US Oyem

1.13

Bouenguidi

0.75

allows per match

US Oyem

0.97

Bouenguidi

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

US Oyem+0.00on par

Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Oyem ↓

Bouenguidi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

US Oyem or draw

74%

US Oyem or Bouenguidi

70%

Draw or Bouenguidi

56%

Winning margin

US Oyem wins by 2+

19%

Bouenguidi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

US Oyem 1+ goals

70%

US Oyem 2+ goals

34%

US Oyem 3+ goals

12%

Bouenguidi 1+ goals

58%

Bouenguidi 2+ goals

21%

Bouenguidi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

US Oyem (draw refunded)

63%

Bouenguidi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Oyem at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Bouenguidi away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Oyem attack 1.13 + Bouenguidi defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bouenguidi attack 0.75 + US Oyem defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

US Oyem scores more

44%

level

30%

Bouenguidi scores more

26%

US Oyem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "US Oyem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff