US Mondorf-les-bains vs FC Differdange 03 — National Division 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
US Mondorf-les-bains32%
FC Differdange 0344%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Differdange 03 creates 20% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
US Mondorf-les-bains ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
US Mondorf-les-bains at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches
FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
US Mondorf-les-bains attack 1.68 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39
FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + US Mondorf-les-bains defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
FC Differdange 03 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Atert BissenFC Differdange 03US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
F91 Dudelange
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
WiltzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
US Mondorf-les-bains host FC Differdange 03 on Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the National Division 2018/2019 season.
National Division: US Mondorf-les-bains 1–3 FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03 beat US Mondorf-les-bains 3-1 in National Division on October 5, 2025.
The match was played at Stade John Grun in Mondorf-les-Bains.