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US Biskra vs RC Arba — League #187 2026

US Biskra
US Biskra
FT
1 – 0
RC Arba
RC Arba
3/10/2017League #187League #187 · Round 24Complexe Sportif d'El Alia (Biskra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

US Biskra49%
×Draw29%
RC Arba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Biskra
1.29
RC Arba
0.75

US Biskra creates 72% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

US Biskra
1.25
RC Arba
1.00

allows per match

US Biskra
0.50
RC Arba
1.33

finishing

US Biskra+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Biskra ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

US Biskra or draw
78%
US Biskra or RC Arba
71%
Draw or RC Arba
51%

Winning margin

US Biskra wins by 2+
23%
RC Arba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

US Biskra 1+ goals
72%
US Biskra 2+ goals
37%
US Biskra 3+ goals
14%
RC Arba 1+ goals
53%
RC Arba 2+ goals
17%
RC Arba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

US Biskra (draw refunded)
69%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Biskra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

RC Arba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Biskra attack 1.25 + RC Arba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

RC Arba attack 1.00 + US Biskra defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

US Biskra scores more
49%
level
29%
RC Arba scores more
22%

US Biskra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "US Biskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: US Biskra vs RC Arba

US Biskra beat RC Arba 1-0 in League #187 on March 10, 2017.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif d'El Alia (Biskra).