US Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa — League #202 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
US Ben Guerdane67%
EGS Gafsa8%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
US Ben Guerdane creates 358% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under72
- Over28
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No78
- Yes22
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
US Ben Guerdane ↓
Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
US Ben Guerdane at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches
EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
US Ben Guerdane attack 1.40 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51
EGS Gafsa attack 0.25 + US Ben Guerdane defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 67%?"
US Ben Guerdane at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 67% does not mean "US Ben Guerdane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
ES Sahel
ES Zarzis
Club Africain
CS Sfaxien
Olympique Béja
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
ES Tunis
JS Kairouanaise
ES Metlaoui
Stade TunisienUS Ben Guerdane
AS Gabes
US Monastirienne
AS Soliman
CA Bizertin
AS MarsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
US Ben Guerdane host EGS Gafsa on Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #202 2026/2027 season.
League #202: US Ben Guerdane 3–1 EGS Gafsa
US Ben Guerdane beat EGS Gafsa 3-1 in League #202 on May 14, 2025.
Goals: I. Belwafi (9', 18'), H. Ben Chaieb (13' o.g.), F. Ben Hassine (60').
The match was played at Stade de Ben Guerdane in Ben Gardane.