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Uruguay W vs Peru W — Friendlies Women 2026

Uruguay W
Uruguay W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Peru W
Peru W
A. Paz 88'
Y. Badell 79', 77'
B. Aquino 70'
S. Lacoste 11'
X. Velazco 6'
Unknown 90+1'
4/7/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Uruguay W84%
×Draw11%
Peru W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay W
3.04
Peru W
0.64

Uruguay W creates 375% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Uruguay W
3.50
Peru W
0.57

allows per match

Uruguay W
0.70
Peru W
2.57

finishing

Uruguay W+0.00on par
Peru W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay W ↓

Peru W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Uruguay W or draw
95%
Uruguay W or Peru W
89%
Draw or Peru W
16%

Winning margin

Uruguay W wins by 2+
65%
Peru W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Uruguay W 1+ goals
95%
Uruguay W 2+ goals
80%
Uruguay W 3+ goals
57%
Peru W 1+ goals
47%
Peru W 2+ goals
14%
Peru W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Uruguay W (draw refunded)
94%
Peru W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay W at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Peru W away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay W attack 3.50 + Peru W defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.04

Peru W attack 0.57 + Uruguay W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Uruguay W scores more
84%
level
11%
Peru W scores more
5%

Uruguay W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Uruguay W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
X. Velazco
7'
11'
S. Lacoste
39'
46'
A. Latua← A. Latua
63'
P. Gonzales← P. Gonzales
63'
Y. Badell← Y. Badell
70'
B. Aquino
77'
Y. Badell
79'
Y. Badell
80'
A. Paz← A. Paz
80'
V. Sburlati← V. Sburlati
88'
A. Paz
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uruguay W vs Peru W

Uruguay W beat Peru W 6-1 in Friendlies Women on April 7, 2023.

Goals: X. Velazco (6'), S. Lacoste (11'), B. Aquino (70'), Y. Badell (77', 79'), A. Paz (88'), ? (90+1').

The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.