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Uruguay vs Panama — Copa America 2019

Uruguay
Uruguay
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Panama
Panama
6/24/2024Copa AmericaCopa America · Group Stage - 1Hard Rock Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uruguay72%
×Draw16%
Panama12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay
2.65
Panama
1.02

Uruguay creates 160% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Uruguay
2.29
Panama
1.33

allows per match

Uruguay
0.71
Panama
3.00

finishing

Uruguay+0.00on par
Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay ↓

Panama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Uruguay or draw
88%
Uruguay or Panama
84%
Draw or Panama
28%

Winning margin

Uruguay wins by 2+
50%
Panama wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Uruguay 1+ goals
93%
Uruguay 2+ goals
74%
Uruguay 3+ goals
48%
Panama 1+ goals
64%
Panama 2+ goals
27%
Panama 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uruguay (draw refunded)
85%
Panama (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Panama away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay attack 2.29 + Panama defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Panama attack 1.33 + Uruguay defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Uruguay scores more
72%
level
16%
Panama scores more
12%

Uruguay at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa America: Uruguay 3–1 Panama

Uruguay beat Panama 3-1 in Copa America on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.