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Uruguay U18 vs Colombia U17 — Friendlies 2018

Uruguay U18
Uruguay U18
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colombia U17
Colombia U17
10/21/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uruguay U1831%
×Draw32%
Colombia U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay U18
0.88
Colombia U17
1.00

Colombia U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uruguay U18
1.00
Colombia U17
1.25

allows per match

Uruguay U18
0.75
Colombia U17
0.75

finishing

Uruguay U18+0.00on par
Colombia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay U18 ↓

Colombia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Uruguay U18 or draw
63%
Uruguay U18 or Colombia U17
68%
Draw or Colombia U17
69%

Winning margin

Uruguay U18 wins by 2+
11%
Colombia U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Uruguay U18 1+ goals
59%
Uruguay U18 2+ goals
22%
Uruguay U18 3+ goals
6%
Colombia U17 1+ goals
63%
Colombia U17 2+ goals
26%
Colombia U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uruguay U18 (draw refunded)
45%
Colombia U17 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Colombia U17 away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay U18 attack 1.00 + Colombia U17 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Colombia U17 attack 1.25 + Uruguay U18 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uruguay U18 scores more
31%
level
32%
Colombia U17 scores more
37%

Colombia U17 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colombia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Uruguay U18 1–0 Colombia U17

Uruguay U18 beat Colombia U17 1-0 in Friendlies on October 21, 2025.