Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz — Segunda División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
Uruguay Montevideo44%
La Luz27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Uruguay Montevideo creates 37% more chances
Season form · 70 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Uruguay Montevideo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches
La Luz away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + La Luz defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26
La Luz attack 0.63 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Uruguay Montevideo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Plaza Colonia
Cerrito
Villa Teresa
Deportivo Maldonado
Tacuarembo
SUD America
Central Espanol
Villa Espanola
Albion FC
Rentistas
Miramar
OrientalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Uruguay Montevideo host La Luz on Saturday, 19 October 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo beat La Luz 1-0 in Segunda División on October 19, 2024.
The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.