Uruguay Montevideo 1–2 Atenas: Result & Stats

Uruguay Montevideo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atenas

8/16/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo38%

×Draw28%

Atenas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uruguay MontevideoExpected goals in this matchAtenas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.12

Uruguay Montevideo

1.19

Atenas

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 95 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.20

Atenas

1.04

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.20

Atenas

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Atenas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Atenas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw

66%

Uruguay Montevideo or Atenas

72%

Draw or Atenas

62%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+

16%

Atenas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals

70%

Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals

33%

Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals

12%

Atenas 1+ goals

67%

Atenas 2+ goals

31%

Atenas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)

52%

Atenas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Atenas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + Atenas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atenas attack 1.04 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more

38%

level

28%

Atenas scores more

34%

Uruguay Montevideo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff