Ursus Warszawa 2–1 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Ursus Warszawa

FT

2 – 1

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

5/15/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ursus Warszawa50%

×Draw23%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchRuch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.29

Ursus Warszawa

1.85

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.29

Ursus Warszawa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

0.78

1.80

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

0.78

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

73%

Ursus Warszawa or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

77%

Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

50%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

28%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

84%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

55%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

28%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

72%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

37%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

65%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

50%

level

23%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

27%

Ursus Warszawa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff