Ursus Warszawa 1–2 Pelikan Łowicz: Result & Stats

Ursus Warszawa

FT

1 – 2

Pelikan Łowicz

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa38%

×Draw24%

Pelikan Łowicz38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchPelikan Łowicz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

Ursus Warszawa

1.52

Pelikan Łowicz

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

1.47

creates per match

1.23

1.80

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

Pelikan Łowicz

1.23

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

Pelikan Łowicz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

62%

Ursus Warszawa or Pelikan Łowicz

76%

Draw or Pelikan Łowicz

62%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

18%

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

45%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

20%

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

78%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

45%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

50%

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

38%

level

24%

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

38%

Ursus Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff