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Pelikan Łowicz vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
0 – 1
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz45%
×Draw24%
Ursus Warszawa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.64
Ursus Warszawa
1.32

Pelikan Łowicz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 53 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
69%
Pelikan Łowicz or Ursus Warszawa
76%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
55%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
23%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
81%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
49%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
23%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
73%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
38%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
59%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
45%
level
24%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
31%

Pelikan Łowicz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pelikan Łowicz 0–1 Ursus Warszawa

Ursus Warszawa beat Pelikan Łowicz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.