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Ursus Warszawa vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
2 – 1
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
O. Pyrzyna 44'
P. Kaminski 8' (pen)
M. Prusinowski 12' (OG)
11/6/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ursus Warszawa44%
×Draw23%
Mamry Giżycko33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.77
Mamry Giżycko
1.51

Ursus Warszawa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
67%
Ursus Warszawa or Mamry Giżycko
77%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
56%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
23%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
83%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
53%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
26%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
78%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
44%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
57%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
44%
level
23%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
33%

Ursus Warszawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
P. KaminskiPenalty
12'
M. PrusinowskiOwn goal
44'
O. Pyrzyna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursus Warszawa vs Mamry Giżycko

Ursus Warszawa beat Mamry Giżycko 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 6, 2021.

Goals: P. Kaminski (8' pen), M. Prusinowski (12' o.g.), O. Pyrzyna (44').

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.