Ursus Warszawa 1–2 Mławianka Mława: Result & Stats

Ursus Warszawa

FT

1 – 2

Mławianka Mława

8/21/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa40%

×Draw23%

Mławianka Mława37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchMławianka Mława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.63

Ursus Warszawa

1.71

Mławianka Mława

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.47

creates per match

1.46

1.80

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

Mławianka Mława

1.46

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

Mławianka Mława

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Mławianka Mława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

63%

Ursus Warszawa or Mławianka Mława

77%

Draw or Mławianka Mława

60%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

21%

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

82%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

51%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

24%

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

80%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

48%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

52%

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

40%

level

23%

Mławianka Mława scores more

37%

Ursus Warszawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff