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Ursus Warszawa vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
0 – 1
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa30%
×Draw23%
Legia Warszawa II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.40
Legia Warszawa II
1.79

Legia Warszawa II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
53%
Ursus Warszawa or Legia Warszawa II
77%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
70%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
13%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
41%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
17%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
83%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
53%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
39%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
30%
level
23%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
47%

Legia Warszawa II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ursus Warszawa 0–1 Legia Warszawa II

Legia Warszawa II beat Ursus Warszawa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.