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Ursaria vs Villaverde-Boetticher — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Ursaria
Ursaria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria60%
×Draw24%
Villaverde-Boetticher16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursaria
1.64
Villaverde-Boetticher
0.71

Ursaria creates 131% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ursaria
1.74
Villaverde-Boetticher
0.94

allows per match

Ursaria
0.49
Villaverde-Boetticher
1.54

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par
Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Villaverde-Boetticher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw
84%
Ursaria or Villaverde-Boetticher
76%
Draw or Villaverde-Boetticher
40%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+
33%
Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals
81%
Ursaria 2+ goals
49%
Ursaria 3+ goals
23%
Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
51%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
16%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)
79%
Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Villaverde-Boetticher away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.94 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ursaria scores more
60%
level
24%
Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
16%

Ursaria at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursaria vs Villaverde-Boetticher

Villaverde-Boetticher beat Ursaria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.