Ursaria 1–0 RSC Internacional: Result & Stats

Ursaria

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RSC Internacional

9/17/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ursaria38%

×Draw25%

RSC Internacional37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrsariaExpected goals in this matchRSC Internacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Ursaria

1.44

RSC Internacional

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 15 away

1.74

creates per match

2.33

0.49

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ursaria

1.74

RSC Internacional

2.33

allows per match

Ursaria

0.49

RSC Internacional

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

RSC Internacional →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw

63%

Ursaria or RSC Internacional

75%

Draw or RSC Internacional

62%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+

18%

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals

76%

Ursaria 2+ goals

42%

Ursaria 3+ goals

18%

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

76%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

41%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)

51%

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ursaria scores more

38%

level

25%

RSC Internacional scores more

37%

Ursaria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 1–0 RSC Internacional

Ursaria beat RSC Internacional 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.

Ursaria vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 1–0 RSC Internacional