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Ursaria vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Ursaria
Ursaria
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Móstoles
Móstoles
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria49%
×Draw27%
Móstoles24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursaria
1.42
Móstoles
0.90

Ursaria creates 58% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ursaria
1.74
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Ursaria
0.49
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw
76%
Ursaria or Móstoles
73%
Draw or Móstoles
51%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+
24%
Móstoles wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals
76%
Ursaria 2+ goals
41%
Ursaria 3+ goals
17%
Móstoles 1+ goals
59%
Móstoles 2+ goals
23%
Móstoles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)
67%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ursaria scores more
49%
level
27%
Móstoles scores more
24%

Ursaria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 2–0 Móstoles

Ursaria beat Móstoles 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.