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Ursaria vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Ursaria
Ursaria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria53%
×Draw26%
Madrid 2021 FP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursaria
1.54
Madrid 2021 FP
0.88

Ursaria creates 75% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ursaria
1.74
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Ursaria
0.49
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw
78%
Ursaria or Madrid 2021 FP
74%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
47%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+
27%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals
79%
Ursaria 2+ goals
45%
Ursaria 3+ goals
20%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
59%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
22%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)
71%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ursaria scores more
53%
level
26%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
22%

Ursaria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursaria vs Madrid 2021 FP

Ursaria and Madrid 2021 FP drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.