Ursaria 3–0 Complutense: Result & Stats

Ursaria

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Complutense

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria65%

×Draw24%

Complutense11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrsariaExpected goals in this matchComplutense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.48

Ursaria

1.58

Complutense

0.48

Ursaria creates 229% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.74

creates per match

0.47

0.49

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ursaria

1.74

Complutense

0.47

allows per match

Ursaria

0.49

Complutense

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par

Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Complutense →

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw

89%

Ursaria or Complutense

76%

Draw or Complutense

35%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+

36%

Complutense wins by 2+

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals

79%

Ursaria 2+ goals

47%

Ursaria 3+ goals

21%

Complutense 1+ goals

38%

Complutense 2+ goals

Complutense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)

85%

Complutense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Complutense attack 0.47 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ursaria scores more

65%

level

24%

Complutense scores more

11%

Ursaria at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff