Ursaria 0–0 Atlético Madrid II: Result & Stats

Ursaria

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Madrid II

9/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ursaria39%

×Draw29%

Atlético Madrid II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrsariaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.04

Ursaria

1.17

Atlético Madrid II

1.04

Ursaria creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 20 away

1.74

creates per match

1.60

0.49

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Ursaria

1.74

Atlético Madrid II

1.60

allows per match

Ursaria

0.49

Atlético Madrid II

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw

68%

Ursaria or Atlético Madrid II

71%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

61%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals

69%

Ursaria 2+ goals

33%

Ursaria 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)

55%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ursaria scores more

39%

level

29%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

32%

Ursaria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 0–0 Atlético Madrid II

Ursaria and Atlético Madrid II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.

Ursaria vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 0–0 Atlético Madrid II