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Ursaria vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Ursaria
Ursaria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
9/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria50%
×Draw27%
Alcorcón II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursaria
1.42
Alcorcón II
0.88

Ursaria creates 61% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ursaria
1.74
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Ursaria
0.49
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw
77%
Ursaria or Alcorcón II
73%
Draw or Alcorcón II
50%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+
24%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals
76%
Ursaria 2+ goals
41%
Ursaria 3+ goals
17%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
59%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
22%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)
68%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ursaria scores more
50%
level
27%
Alcorcón II scores more
23%

Ursaria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursaria vs Alcorcón II

Ursaria and Alcorcón II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.