Urraca 1–5 Sporting Gijón II: Result & Stats

Urraca

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Sporting Gijón II

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca28%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijón II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrracaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.22

Urraca

0.91

Sporting Gijón II

1.22

Sporting Gijón II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 86 away

1.03

creates per match

1.41

1.03

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Urraca

1.03

Sporting Gijón II

1.41

allows per match

Urraca

1.03

Sporting Gijón II

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Urraca or draw

57%

Urraca or Sporting Gijón II

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

72%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals

60%

Urraca 2+ goals

23%

Urraca 3+ goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

70%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

34%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)

39%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urraca scores more

28%

level

29%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

43%

Sporting Gijón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 1–5 Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Urraca 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.

Urraca vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 1–5 Sporting Gijón II