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Urraca vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Urraca
Urraca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca26%
×Draw27%
Covadonga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urraca
0.99
Covadonga
1.42

Covadonga creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 83 away

creates per match

Urraca
1.03
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Urraca
1.03
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urraca or draw
53%
Urraca or Covadonga
73%
Draw or Covadonga
74%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals
63%
Urraca 2+ goals
26%
Urraca 3+ goals
8%
Covadonga 1+ goals
76%
Covadonga 2+ goals
41%
Covadonga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)
36%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urraca scores more
26%
level
27%
Covadonga scores more
47%

Covadonga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 1–0 Covadonga

Urraca beat Covadonga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.