Urraca 0–0 Colunga: Result & Stats

Urraca

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colunga

4/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca39%

×Draw29%

Colunga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrracaExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Urraca

1.19

Colunga

1.04

Urraca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 113 away

1.03

creates per match

1.04

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Urraca

1.03

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Urraca

1.03

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Colunga →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Urraca or draw

68%

Urraca or Colunga

71%

Draw or Colunga

61%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+

17%

Colunga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals

70%

Urraca 2+ goals

33%

Urraca 3+ goals

12%

Colunga 1+ goals

65%

Colunga 2+ goals

28%

Colunga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)

55%

Colunga (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Colunga attack 1.04 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urraca scores more

39%

level

29%

Colunga scores more

32%

Urraca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Arturo Batalla← Simón Carrero

46'

David Moreno← Javier Meana

60'

Raúl Piñera← Chery

66'

Álvaro García← David Ferrari

75'

C. Marques← Noé Fernández

75'

Álvaro García← Rubio

83'

Abel Fernández← José Naya

83'

Carlos Barcia← Robert Martínez

Urraca

Colunga

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ayrton González

46'▲Arturo Batalla←▼Simón Carrero

60'▲Raúl Piñera←▼Chery

75'▲C. Marques←▼Noé Fernández

75'▲Álvaro García←▼Rubio

Urraca substitutes

BatallaPiñeraMarquesGarcía

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

46'▲David Moreno←▼Javier Meana

66'▲Álvaro García←▼David Ferrari

83'▲Abel Fernández←▼José Naya

83'▲Carlos Barcia←▼Robert Martínez

Colunga substitutes

MorenoGarcíaFernándezBarcia

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 0–0 Colunga

Urraca and Colunga drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.

Urraca vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 0–0 Colunga