Urraca 0–0 Avilés Stadium: Result & Stats

Urraca

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avilés Stadium

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca47%

×Draw27%

Avilés Stadium25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrracaExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.94

Urraca

1.39

Avilés Stadium

0.94

Urraca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

1.03

creates per match

0.85

1.03

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Urraca

1.03

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Urraca

1.03

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Urraca or draw

75%

Urraca or Avilés Stadium

73%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

53%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+

23%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals

75%

Urraca 2+ goals

40%

Urraca 3+ goals

16%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

61%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

24%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)

65%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urraca scores more

47%

level

27%

Avilés Stadium scores more

25%

Urraca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff