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Urozhay vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
10/14/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay31%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.02
Torpedo Moskva
1.23

Torpedo Moskva creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
59%
Urozhay or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
69%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
11%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
64%
Urozhay 2+ goals
27%
Urozhay 3+ goals
8%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
43%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Urozhay scores more
31%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
41%

Torpedo Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Urozhay 2–1 Torpedo Moskva

Urozhay beat Torpedo Moskva 2-1 in First League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.