Urozhay 2–2 TOM Tomsk: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

TOM Tomsk

4/6/2022

First League · Round 31Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay38%

×Draw29%

TOM Tomsk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchTOM Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.07

Urozhay

1.15

TOM Tomsk

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 74 away

0.98

creates per match

0.91

1.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Urozhay

0.98

TOM Tomsk

0.91

allows per match

Urozhay

1.23

TOM Tomsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

TOM Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

66%

Urozhay or TOM Tomsk

71%

Draw or TOM Tomsk

62%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

16%

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

68%

Urozhay 2+ goals

32%

Urozhay 3+ goals

11%

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

66%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

29%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

53%

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Urozhay scores more

38%

level

29%

TOM Tomsk scores more

34%

Urozhay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff