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Urozhay vs Murom — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Murom
Murom
9/21/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Kuban Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay46%
×Draw30%
Murom24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.19
Murom
0.76

Urozhay creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.94
Murom
0.88

allows per match

Urozhay
0.63
Murom
1.44

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Murom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
76%
Urozhay or Murom
70%
Draw or Murom
54%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
20%
Murom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
70%
Urozhay 2+ goals
33%
Urozhay 3+ goals
12%
Murom 1+ goals
53%
Murom 2+ goals
18%
Murom 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
66%
Murom (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Murom away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.94 + Murom defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Murom attack 0.88 + Urozhay defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urozhay scores more
46%
level
30%
Murom scores more
24%

Urozhay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Urozhay 0–0 Murom

Urozhay and Murom drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Kuban Stadium in Krasnodar.