Urozhay 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Metallurg Lipetsk

9/11/2021

First League · Round 10Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Urozhay48%

×Draw25%

Metallurg Lipetsk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

Urozhay

1.57

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.09

Urozhay creates 44% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

0.98

creates per match

0.95

1.23

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Urozhay

0.98

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.95

allows per match

Urozhay

1.23

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

74%

Urozhay or Metallurg Lipetsk

75%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

52%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

25%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

79%

Urozhay 2+ goals

46%

Urozhay 3+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

66%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

30%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

65%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.57

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Urozhay scores more

48%

level

25%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

26%

Urozhay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff