Urozhay 1–0 Krasnodar III: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Krasnodar III

4/10/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay70%

×Draw18%

Krasnodar III13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.91

Urozhay

2.38

Krasnodar III

0.91

Urozhay creates 162% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

3.06

creates per match

1.13

0.69

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Urozhay

3.06

Krasnodar III

1.13

allows per match

Urozhay

0.69

Krasnodar III

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Krasnodar III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

87%

Urozhay or Krasnodar III

82%

Draw or Krasnodar III

30%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

47%

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

91%

Urozhay 2+ goals

68%

Urozhay 3+ goals

42%

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

60%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

23%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

85%

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 3.06 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.38

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Urozhay scores more

70%

level

18%

Krasnodar III scores more

13%

Urozhay at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff