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Urozhay vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
10/1/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay41%
×Draw28%
Krasnodar 231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.28
Krasnodar 2
1.06

Urozhay creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 91 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
69%
Urozhay or Krasnodar 2
72%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
59%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
19%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
72%
Urozhay 2+ goals
37%
Urozhay 3+ goals
14%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
65%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
29%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
57%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.28

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Urozhay scores more
41%
level
28%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
31%

Urozhay at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Krasnodar 2

Urozhay beat Krasnodar 2 4-0 in First League on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.