Urozhay 0–0 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Irtysh Omsk

9/14/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Kuban Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay42%

×Draw30%

Irtysh Omsk28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.88

Urozhay

1.16

Irtysh Omsk

0.88

Urozhay creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.94

creates per match

1.13

0.63

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Urozhay

0.94

Irtysh Omsk

1.13

allows per match

Urozhay

0.63

Irtysh Omsk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

72%

Urozhay or Irtysh Omsk

70%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

58%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

18%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

69%

Urozhay 2+ goals

32%

Urozhay 3+ goals

11%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

59%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

22%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

60%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.94 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Urozhay defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Urozhay scores more

42%

level

30%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

28%

Urozhay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

8'

18'

19'

46'

I. Moseychuk← R. Pechura

56'

D. Smirnov

62'

I. Bezdenezhnykh

64'

E. Emeljanov← D. Melnikov

64'

B. Reykhmen← M. Ageev

68'

D. Kazantsev

77'

A. Orlov← I. Molteninov

78'

A. Maleev← K. Shokhin

78'

I. Kozhukhar← R. Yanushkovskiy

78'

V. Bykov← V. Yanchenko

83'

M. Markin← N. Dorofeev

Urozhay

Irtysh

16

19

6

44

25

18

24

▼

Shokhin

12

Kazantsev

89

▼

Dorofeev

59

▼

Yanchenko

10

▼

1

96

19

37

78

▼

Melnikov

87

Bezdenezh

81

▼

Pechura

17

Smirnov

27

Ofitserov

28

▼

Moltenino

13

▼

Ageev

46'▲I. Moseychuk←▼R. Pechura

64'▲E. Emeljanov←▼D. Melnikov

64'▲B. Reykhmen←▼M. Ageev

77'▲A. Orlov←▼I. Molteninov

Urozhay substitutes

24Ternovskiy51Emeljanov72Gayvoronskiy6Fust77Orlov10Moseychuk9Reykhmen15Kravchuk20Shvets

78'▲A. Maleev←▼K. Shokhin

78'▲I. Kozhukhar←▼R. Yanushkovskiy

78'▲V. Bykov←▼V. Yanchenko

83'▲M. Markin←▼N. Dorofeev

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

60Poletaev2Kleyner23Zhustjev8Maleev9Kozhukhar11Kopylov49Bykov93Markin