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Urozhay vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
3/5/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay81%
×Draw12%
Inter Cherkessk7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
3.09
Inter Cherkessk
0.81

Urozhay creates 281% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Urozhay
3.06
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Urozhay
0.69
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
93%
Urozhay or Inter Cherkessk
88%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
19%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
63%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
95%
Urozhay 2+ goals
81%
Urozhay 3+ goals
58%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
56%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
19%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
92%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 3.06 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.09

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Urozhay scores more
81%
level
12%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
7%

Urozhay at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Inter Cherkessk

Urozhay beat Inter Cherkessk 6-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.