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Urozhay vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
10/18/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Kuban Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay44%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Vladivostok26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.16
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.81

Urozhay creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.94
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.00

allows per match

Urozhay
0.63
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.38

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
74%
Urozhay or Dinamo Vladivostok
70%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
56%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
69%
Urozhay 2+ goals
32%
Urozhay 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.94 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Urozhay defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Urozhay scores more
44%
level
30%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
26%

Urozhay at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Urozhay 2–0 Dinamo Vladivostok

Urozhay beat Dinamo Vladivostok 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Kuban Stadium in Krasnodar.