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Urozhay vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Biolog
Biolog
10/11/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay67%
×Draw18%
Biolog15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
2.33
Biolog
0.99

Urozhay creates 135% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Urozhay
3.06
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Urozhay
0.69
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
85%
Urozhay or Biolog
82%
Draw or Biolog
33%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
44%
Biolog wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
90%
Urozhay 2+ goals
67%
Urozhay 3+ goals
41%
Biolog 1+ goals
63%
Biolog 2+ goals
26%
Biolog 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
82%
Biolog (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 3.06 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.33

Biolog attack 1.30 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Urozhay scores more
67%
level
18%
Biolog scores more
15%

Urozhay at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Urozhay 6–1 Biolog

Urozhay beat Biolog 6-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.