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Urozhay vs Baltika — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
10/16/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay29%
×Draw28%
Baltika43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
0.99
Baltika
1.29

Baltika creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 109 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
57%
Urozhay or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
71%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
10%
Baltika wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
63%
Urozhay 2+ goals
26%
Urozhay 3+ goals
8%
Baltika 1+ goals
72%
Baltika 2+ goals
37%
Baltika 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
40%
Baltika (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Baltika attack 1.34 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urozhay scores more
29%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
43%

Baltika at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Baltika

Urozhay and Baltika drew 0-0 in First League on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.