Urozhay 1–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avangard Kursk

8/16/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Kuban Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay39%

×Draw33%

Avangard Kursk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.78

Urozhay

0.97

Avangard Kursk

0.78

Urozhay creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.94

creates per match

0.94

0.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Urozhay

0.94

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Urozhay

0.63

Avangard Kursk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

72%

Urozhay or Avangard Kursk

67%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

61%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

15%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

62%

Urozhay 2+ goals

25%

Urozhay 3+ goals

7%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

54%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

18%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

58%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.94 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Urozhay defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urozhay scores more

39%

level

33%

Avangard Kursk scores more

28%

Urozhay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff