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URK vs Staphorst — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

URK
URK
FT
2 – 3
Staphorst
Staphorst
9/13/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 5Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

URK39%
×Draw22%
Staphorst39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URK
1.83
Staphorst
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 71 away

creates per match

URK
1.81
Staphorst
1.32

allows per match

URK
2.35
Staphorst
1.85

finishing

URK+0.00on par
Staphorst+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

Staphorst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

URK or draw
61%
URK or Staphorst
78%
Draw or Staphorst
61%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+
21%
Staphorst wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals
84%
URK 2+ goals
54%
URK 3+ goals
28%
Staphorst 1+ goals
84%
Staphorst 2+ goals
54%
Staphorst 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)
50%
Staphorst (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

Staphorst away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + Staphorst defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Staphorst attack 1.32 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

URK scores more
39%
level
22%
Staphorst scores more
39%

URK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "URK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: URK 2–3 Staphorst

Staphorst beat URK 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vormt in Urk.