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URK vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

URK
URK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
8/30/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 3Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

URK33%
×Draw21%
Harkemase Boys46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URK
1.70
Harkemase Boys
2.02

Harkemase Boys creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 98 away

creates per match

URK
1.81
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

URK
2.35
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

URK+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

URK or draw
54%
URK or Harkemase Boys
79%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
67%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+
16%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals
82%
URK 2+ goals
51%
URK 3+ goals
24%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
87%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
60%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)
42%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

URK scores more
33%
level
21%
Harkemase Boys scores more
46%

Harkemase Boys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: URK 1–1 Harkemase Boys

URK and Harkemase Boys drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vormt in Urk.